2011 GRIM MOCK DRAFT 1.0

Mock drafts have been swirling since the end of last season, but I always wait a little while to jump into it.  I like to let things settle a little bit first, letting the Combine and most of the Pro Days and private workouts happen before putting out my initial first-round projection.

That time has indeed arrived, so here is the first version of how I think the first round will shake out.  At this point, I’m not including projected trades, so this will be who I think will be selected if every team stays put at their pick.

Here we go.

Auburn QB Cam Newton

1. Carolina Panthers – Cam Newton, QB, Auburn – We’re going to hear a million stories about this pick between now and Draft Day.  At this point, everything I’m hearing points to Newton being the pick.  It seems a little early for Carolina GM Marty Hurney to be giving up on last year’s 2nd round pick, Jimmy Clausen, but Newton’s potential might just be too much for the Panthers to pass up.

 

2. Denver Broncos – Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama – The Broncos are transitioning to a 4-3 scheme, and the most immediate need will be a dominant presence in the interior of the defensive line.  Thankfully for Denver, they should have an opportunity to land the most complete player in this draft at that position in Dareus.

 

3. Buffalo Bills – Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M – Bringing in an edge rusher isn’t the most pressing need for Buffalo, but if Newton is off the board, look for them to go this route.  Miller is one of the top overall talents in the draft, and taking him would be a much better decision than reaching for an offensive tackle or taking Blaine Gabbert.  If the Bills choose to stick with the “Best Player Available” theory, look for Patrick Peterson to get serious consideration here, as well.

Georgia WR A.J. Green

 

4. Cincinnati Bengals – A.J. Green, WR, Georgia – Carson Palmer’s status remains uncertain, but if the Bengals hold out any hope of bringing him back next season, they have to restock his arsenal of weapons.  Green is one of the most complete receivers to enter the draft in recent memory, and would make an immediate impact.

 

5. Arizona Cardinals – Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri – The Cardinals are in desperate need of a franchise QB, and they have to take the risk of hoping Gabbert can be the guy.  If Von Miller falls to this pick, it may make the decision a little harder, but in this scenario Gabbert would be the no-brainer.

 

6. Cleveland Browns – Robert Quinn, OLB, North Carolina – GM Mike Holmgren would hate to see A.J. Green off the board at this point, but there are definitely other solid options in this scenario.  I see the Browns taking value over need with this pick, taking a dominant edge rusher in Quinn over the risky pick, Da’Quan Bowers.

 

7. San Francisco 49ers – Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU – This pick shouldn’t take long to get in if the draft falls this way.  Peterson is arguably the best overall player in this draft, and would give the ‘Niners an electrifying playmaker at a premium position.

LSU CB Patrick Peterson

 

8. Tennessee Titans – Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn – Fairley’s former position coach, Tracey Rocker (now an assistant for the Titans), will be screaming for this pick to be made.  There’s no value at this point at QB, there they have the biggest need, so they take last year’s most dominant defensive player in college football.

 

9. Dallas Cowboys – J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin – As always, the Cowboys will most likely try to trade down from this pick and take the best available offensive tackle or defensive end.  If they stay put, however, Watt represents the best value at a huge need area, as opposed to reaching for a tackle here.

 

10. Washington Redskins – Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri – Julio Jones is the popular pick here, but I’ve got a feeling that Washington is going to go in different direction with this pick.  WR is definitely a bigger area of need, but pairing Smith with Brian Orakpo would give the ‘Skins a formidable duo of edge rushers.

Nebraska CB Prince Amukamara

 

11.  Houston Texans – Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska – The Texans would love to see a top talent like Amukamara fall to them here.  Cornerback is a top priority  for Houston, and in this scenario they would snag a Top-10 talent.

 

12. Minnesota Vikings – Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson – QB is a way bigger need for the Vikes, but I think this is way too early to start talking about Jake Locker or Christian Ponder.  It’s hard to be sure how fall Bowers will fall due to serious health concerns, but at this pick it would be hard for Minnesota to resist a top-5 talent.

 

13. Detroit Lions – Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College – The Lions would hate to see Amukamara gone at this point, but providing stronger protection for Matthew Stafford is also a priority.  Castonzo is thought of in some circles to be the most pro-ready of any of the tackle prospects.

 

14. St. Louis Rams – Julio Jones, WR, Alabama – This is the dream scenario for the Rams.  WR is definitely their biggest need, and the drop-off after Jones is steep.  This pick would give Sam Bradford a big target with a stellar combination of size and athleticism.

Alabama RB Mark Ingram

 

15. Miami Dolphins – Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama – Miami is the only team with a true need for a feature back, and they’re almost certain to have the opportunity to grab the best back in this year’s class.  Ingram has the skill set required of an every-down NFL back and has drawn comparisons to Emmitt Smith.

 

16. Jacksonville Jaguars – Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue – The Jags have two young starters entrenched along the interior of the defensive line in Tyson Alualu and Terrance Knighton, but they still need a dynamic pass rusher of the future.  Kerrigan is well-balanced against both the run and pass, and rarely takes a play off.  He also represents the best value here versus other need areas for the Jags.

 

17.  New England Patriots (from OAK) – Mike Pouncey, G/C, Florida – The Pats will again have the luxury of letting the draft come to them.  With plenty of picks in the early rounds and not many huge needs, they will simply take the best player available.  The Pats love taking Gators, and Pouncey’s versatility will provide needed depth along the interior of the offensive line.

 

18. San Diego Chargers – Cameron Jordan, DE, California–  The Bolts would love for Jordan to make it past the Pats.  They have a huge need for a 5-technique defensive end, and Jordan’s stellar performance at the Senior Bowl vaulted him into the mid-first-round conversation.

 

19. New York Giants – Tyron Smith, OT, USC – Pure value with this pick.  While their true need is along the interior of the offensive line, there’s really no first-round value at this point with Pouncey already off the board.  In this scenario, the G-Men might not be able to pass up Smith, who is arguably the best tackle in the draft. 

UCLA OLB Akeem Ayers

 

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA – The Bucs need help throughout the entire defensive unit, and Ayers’ versatility makes him a perfect fit.  Ayers displays great athleticism in coverage, excellent instincts in pursuit and play recognition, and was successful as a pass rusher, even from a true defensive end alignment at UCLA.

 

21. Kansas City Chiefs – Nate Solder, OT, Colorado – It’s possible that K.C. could go for a receiver here, but the value is better at other positions at this point.  Solder could plug in immediately at the right tackle spot and would be a solid addition to the offensive line.

 

22. Indianapolis Colts – Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin – The Colts need to invest in keeping Peyton Manning on his feet, and Carimi’s ability to play either tackle spot make him a great pick who could make an impact right away.

 

23. Philadelphia Eagles – Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado – This pick is a perfect fit, balancing value with a pressing need.  Character concerns have tempered Smith’s draft stock, but his physical ability is undeniable.

Iowa DE Adrian Clayborn

 

24. New Orleans Saints – Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa – This is another pick that just makes sense.  The Saints have a glaring need at defensive end, and Clayborn is likely to come off the board around this pick.

 

25. Seattle Seahawks – Jake Locker, QB, Washington – The Charlie Whitehurst experiment looks to be a failure already, leaving the Seahawks in need of a franchise QB.  The Seahawks have had the closest vantage point for watching Locker, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them pull the trigger here.

 

26. Baltimore Ravens – Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland – Joe Flacco needs a target who can stretch the field and take some coverage pressure off of Anquan Boldin.  Smith is a local favorite whose great size/speed combination would be the perfect fit for the Ravens.

 

27. Atlanta Falcons – Justin Houston, DE, Georgia – The Falcons have a few different options here, but the best value is still at defensive end at this point.  Houston is a very similar player to John Abraham, and would provide an immediate impact as a situational pass rusher until he’s fully prepared to play on every down.

Temple DE Muhammed Wilkerson

 

28. New England Patriots – Muhammed Wilkerson, DE, Temple – Whomever the Pats take at #17 will obviously have a big impact on what direction they go with this pick.  In this scenario, the Pats would be looking to add either an outside linebacker or a 5-technique defensive end such as Wilkerson, who played defensive tackle at Temple but would transition into the 3-4 end position.

 

29. Chicago Bears – Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois – With the departure of Tommie Harris, the Bears have a huge need for a 3-technique defensive tackle.  This would be a favorable scenario for Chicago, in which a top-20 talent like Liuget falls to them at this pick.

 

30. New York Jets – Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona – This pick would be a great fit.  The Jets have a glaring hole at outside linebacker, and Reed’s stock has done nothing but go up since the end of last season.  He would provide instant help as a pass-rushing presence off the edge.

Miami (FL) CB Brandon Harris

 

31. Pittsburgh Steelers -Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (FL) – The Steelers need for get faster in the defensive backfield, and while Texas’ Aaron Williams might be a more complete corner, Harris has him beat in the speed department and could get the nod if they choose to go in that direction.

 

32. Green Bay Packers – Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State – There’s obviously not a lot of need areas for the Super Bowl champs, but adding a young building block at defensive end would definitely be a wise way to go with this pick.  Heyward underachieved at Ohio State, but his potential would be worth pulling the trigger here.